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  • Si Chen, Hong Yuan, Yong Wei, Guang Yang, Fengzheng Yu. 2024: Extreme value theory applied to the auroral electrojet indices. Earth and Planetary Physics. DOI: 10.26464/epp2024015
    Citation: Si Chen, Hong Yuan, Yong Wei, Guang Yang, Fengzheng Yu. 2024: Extreme value theory applied to the auroral electrojet indices. Earth and Planetary Physics. DOI: 10.26464/epp2024015
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Extreme value theory applied to the auroral electrojet indices

  • The study of extreme weather and space events has gained paramount importance in modern society, owing to rapid advancements in high technology. Understanding and describing exceptional occurrences play a crucial role in making decisive assessments of their potential impact on technical, economic, and social aspects in various fields. This research focuses on analyzing the hourly values of the AE geomagnetic index from 1957 to 2019, employing the peak over threshold method in extreme value theory. By fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to the extreme AE values, shape parameter indices are derived, revealing negative values that establish an upper bound for this time series. Consequently, it becomes evident that the AE values have reached a plateau, suggesting that extreme events exceeding the established upper limit are rare. As a result, while the need for diligent precautions to mitigate the consequences of such extreme events persists, surpassing the upper limit for AE values becomes increasingly challenging. It is also possible to observe the aurora in the middle and low latitude regions during the maximum period of the AE index.
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