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  • QingRan Li, ShaoDong Zhang, KaiMing Huang, ChunMing Huang, Yun Gong, WenTao Tang, and Zheng Ma. 24: Long-term Variation of Arctic Stratospheric Sudden Warmings and the potential causes. Earth and Planetary Physics. DOI: 10.26464/epp2024037
    Citation: QingRan Li, ShaoDong Zhang, KaiMing Huang, ChunMing Huang, Yun Gong, WenTao Tang, and Zheng Ma. 24: Long-term Variation of Arctic Stratospheric Sudden Warmings and the potential causes. Earth and Planetary Physics. DOI: 10.26464/epp2024037
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Long-term Variation of Arctic Stratospheric Sudden Warmings and the potential causes

  • Utilizing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), for the first time, we confirmed the close links among Stratospheric Sudden Warmings (SSWs) in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), Arctic vortex anomaly, and stratospheric planetary waves (PWs) by analyzing their trends. Interestingly, under the overall increasing trends, the duration and strength of SSW exhibit increasing and decreasing trends before and after 2002, respectively. To reveal the physical mechanism of these trends, we analyzed the long-term trend of winter (from December to February) Arctic vortex anomaly and stratospheric PWs with zonal wave number 1. Notably, our results show that in all three durations, e.g., 1980-2020, 1980-2002, and 2002-2020, enhancing SSWs are always accompanied by weakening winter polar vortices anomaly and strengthening polar PWs (stationary planetary wave and 16-day wave), and vice versa. This is the first proof that the weakening polar vortices and enhancing stratospheric PWs (especially stationary planetary waves) could cause an increase in SSW on the long-term trends based on ERA5.
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